Here's a sample of my actual weekly change in weight vs what what calculations said based on average daily intake. Actual, on the left, is all over the place. I drop 3lbs, then 0lbs, then gain weight. Meanwhile, the calculated changes in weight precede getting gradually less and less as my TDEE gets lower from weight loss barring occasional higher calorie weeks.
Since I started tracking on 10/23 to yesterday, the average weekly weight loss I was calculated to lose based on what I actually ate each week was 1.67 lbs. My actual average loss was 1.63 lbs. (Now, that's enough that I'm projected to hit my goal 2 weeks later than hoped, but eh)
If you're just starting on losing weight, this is why your concerns about how your weightloss is going are immediately answered with "it's water weight". Because in the short term, and short term is like two months, water weight drastically affects your weight.
Comment with some of the weirdest water weight effects you've experienced!
Edit: Just realized I didn't crop out several weeks of projected data at the bottom. It should be pretty clear where actual results end and projected results begin though, so I'm not going to bother.
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/ni70i9/another_one_for_the_number_fans_fun_with_averages/
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